This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
Top 200 ranking: 6
Weekly ranking: 17
Difference: -11
Romo is coming off a middling performance last week against the woeful Minnesota Vikings. Things will be much more difficult against the New Orleans Saints this week. The game is in New Orleans and the Saints defense has played much better at home than on the road. We are not expecting the Dallas quarterback to have a stellar game against Rob Ryan's defense.
Top 200 ranking: 4
Weekly ranking: 11
Difference: -7
Newton has been much improved the past couple of weeks and the Panthers defense has set up short fields for the offense to maneuver. The game against the San Francisco 49ers this week will be a very difficult one for the Carolina offense. The 49ers are coming off a bye week and the game is in San Francisco. We do not like Newton as anything more than a low-end starter this week.
Running Back
Top 200 ranking: 13
Weekly ranking: 27
Difference: -14
Fred Jackson has enjoyed another solid season, even though he is well into his thirties. We are not especially fond of his fantasy upside this week for a few reasons. First of all, C.J. Spiller looked great last week and should be even healthier this week. Also, the Bills look to have E.J. Manuel back under center this week. Manuel's running ability may take from Jackson's carries. Lastly, we expect the Steelers defense to play with spirit after getting embarrassed last week against the New England Patriots.
Top 200 ranking: 38
Weekly ranking: 47
Difference: -9
The Carolina backfield is a muddled mess with Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, and Mike Tolbert sharing carries. This does not include the yards quarterback Cam Newton picks up on the ground. Stewart is still rounding into football shape and is unlikely to see much more than a dozen touches in the game at San Francisco. He is a difficult player to recommend given the stiff matchup and the committee approach the Panthers are utilizing. There are more attractive options this week on the waiver wire in most leagues.
Wide Receiver
Top 200 ranking: 6
Weekly ranking: 16
Difference: -10
Jordy Nelson has stepped into the top receiver spot vacated by the injury to Randall Cobb. Nelson has been the top target for Aaron Rodgers since. But, the injury to Rodgers has necessitated the downgrade of Nelson this week, even against the porous Philadelphia Eagles defense. We do not have faith in quarterback Seneca Wallace to be effective and efficient, and take advantage of the Philadelphia defense the way Rodgers could.
Top 200 ranking: 12
Weekly ranking: 17
Difference: -5
Vincent Jackson is the lone consistent wide receiver for the Buccaneers after Mike Williams was lost for the season with a hamstring injury. Tampa Bay faces off against Miami this week. The Dolphins have a solid secondary and will look to put the clamps on Jackson. Quarterback Mike Glennon does not throw the ball down the field with confidence which only limits Jackson's opportunities for big plays.
Top 200 ranking: 5
Weekly ranking: 9
Difference: -4
Welker is having a great season in Denver. He has set career touchdown records with Peyton Manning under center. The matchup in San Diego will be unusually difficult for the Broncos passing game. While we still like Denver to eek out a victory, it will not be easy. The Chargers defense has played surprisingly well this year. This will be a hard-fought division game that will tax both offenses, even though both are playing well this season.
Tight End
Top 200 ranking: 13
Weekly ranking: 17
Difference: -4
Clay has played well after the injury to Dustin Keller opened the door for more playing time. He is athletic and makes plays after the catch. With the mess in the Dolphins locker room this week, we do not like the chances of their offensive players to put up strong fantasy numbers, including the under-utilized tight end.
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